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| |  New Tool May Help Predict Risk of Second Stroke ST. PAUL, Minn -- December 28, 2009 -- Scientists have developed a new web-based tool that may better predict whether a person will suffer a second stroke within 90 days of a first stroke, according to research published in the December 16 online issue of the journal Neurology. “This is an important new tool because studies show that people who have a second stroke soon after a first stroke are more likely to die or have severe disability,” said study author Hakan Ay, MD, Massachusetts General Hospital, and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts. “This tool can help doctors identify people who are at high risk of having another stroke and need immediate evaluation based on information typically available at the time of initial evaluation.” For the study, researchers examined information from 1,458 people who experienced an ischaemic stroke and were admitted to the hospital within 72 hours. Participants gave information about their medical history and underwent brain scans. After a 3-month follow up involving 806 of the participants, 60 strokes had occurred. Of those, 30 strokes occurred within 14 days of the first stroke. The study found that the risk of recurrent stroke was 2.6% at 14 days and 6% at 90 days. Scientists developed a new tool known as the ‘Recurrence Risk Estimator at 90 days’ or RRE-90 score to calculate a person’s risk of having another stroke within 3 months by looking at risk factors of stroke, such as history of mini-stroke, or transient ischaemic attack (TIA), age and the type of first stroke the person experienced, along with information from brain scans. The higher the score, the more likely it was a patient would experience a second stroke. The 90-day risk was approximately 40 times greater in people with 4 or more stroke risk factors than in people without any risk factors. The study found that over 96% of patients who developed a second stroke showed signs of 1 or more risk factor. “We currently don’t have a well-developed tool for predicting short-term risk of early recurrent stroke, so this tool could help improve stroke care and outcome,” said Dr. Ay. “For example, people at high risk of a second stroke can be immediately admitted to specialised stroke centres and given preventative treatment.” Another interesting finding in the study was that long-term predictors of stroke, such as smoking, diabetes, and hypertension did not predict short-term strokes. Dr. Ay said the accuracy of the tool still needs to be confirmed before it can be implemented for general use.
SOURCE: American Academy of Neurology
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